Last week was a bit more predictable than round 1 and it’s great to see some of the lesser lights of the competition being in the top 8, albeit very early in the season.
Round 3 kicks off with another cracking Thursday night game with Geelong taking on Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval. I’m expecting a lot of close games this week and I can’t see any games that will blow out to massive margins. It’s sure to be an exciting week of footy.
Lets get into the round 3 AFL tips and try to pick some winners for round 3 of the AFL Season.
We have also created a Brownlow Predictor for the 2019 season where we try to see the game through the eyes of an umpire, see the brownlow predictor here.
Adelaide V Geelong
The last five matches between these two teams paint an interesting story with Adelaide winning the past three which were all played at the Adelaide Oval. While Geelong won the previous two which were held down in Geelong. The home ground seems to have a massive say in the outcome between these two teams.
The injury lists for the two clubs is similar with no massive injuries to either team. Doedee who has been ruled out with a knee is probably the biggest name on either injury list and Adelaide coped fine up in Sydney without him last week.
Geelong were impressive last week but on the road at Adelaide Oval is a different story so I’ll be taking the Crows in a tight one.
Match Prediction – Adelaide Crows by 7 points
Betting Tip – Adelaide Crows 1-39 Margin Bet – ($2.30 – Neds)Bet Now At NEDS
Melbourne V Essendon
After two games of the AFL season both of these teams remain winless. They are both drastically out of form and will have to find it quickly or it could be a long season for both teams.
The Bombers had a very slow start against the Saints last week although they came out in the third quarter ready to play. They brought an intensity in the second half that we haven’t seen from Essendon this year. In saying that they still couldn’t manage to run down the Saints.
Melbourne were pathetic down in Geelong last week with many players looking out of form. They always seem to struggle down at GMHBA Stadium so it wasn’t unexpected but an 80 point loss was a bit embarrassing for them. They are back on the home deck this week and the media scrutiny they will receive during the week should kick them into gear for this week against the Bombers.
I’m tipping both teams will come to play this week resulting in a nail biter with Melbourne just squeezing over the top of the Bombers. For the betting tip I’ll take the Bombers at the line with a 15.5 point buffer.
Match Prediction – Melbourne by 3 points
Betting Tip – Essendon at the line +15.5 – ($1.90 – Neds)Bet Now At NEDS
Carlton V Sydney
Carlton were solid last week when travelling to Adelaide to take on Port. They lost by 16 points but managed to hold on well in the last quarter when it was bucketing down. The Blues definitely ran the game out better than the first round where they basically stopped in the last quarter.
Sydney’s two losses this year can be excused, they lost to the Bulldogs in the first week who look to be back to the form of 2016 where they won the flag. Last week they went down to Adelaide at home, I rate Adelaide highly and expected them to get the job done over the Swans.
The Sydney team isn’t what it has been in the past but they still have a quality lineup which should take care of the up and coming Blues.
Look for Buddy to kick a bag and the Swans to get their first win on the board for 2019.
Match Prediction – Sydney by 17
Betting Tip – Sydney to win – ($1.48 – Neds)Bet Now At NEDS
GWS V Richmond
The Tigers are having a year from hell, first it was Rance going down with an ACL, now it’s Riewoldt with a broken wrist. One good thing for the Tigers is they recruited Tom Lynch in the off season so he will be the lone tall target in the forward line. I haven’t liked the approach of the Tigers this year, Dusty seems to be out of form and they aren’t putting as much pressure on as they have in the past.
Josh Kelly was almost ready to come back into the GWS side last week but the Giants opted against it come selection time but he will be ready to go this week.
GWS looked great in their first game then got beaten comprehensively last week off the reigning premiers over in Perth. I’m disregarding last weeks game and will look at the form of the Giants in the first week.
The Giants have beaten the Tigers the last two times they have played at Spotless Stadium while Richmond have won their past two at the G. This is another one where the home ground seems to play a big factor.
This match is at home for GWS, the Tigers are missing Rance and Riewoldt. Couple that with the fact the Tigers are just out of touch. and i’m swayed to believe GWS will get the job done here.
Match Prediction – GWS by 18 Points
Betting Tip – GWS 1-39 Margin Bet – ($2.18 – Neds)Bet Now At NEDS
Brisbane V Port Adelaide
The Lions are on a rampage this year winning their first two games convincingly, I’ve been impressed with the way they’ve been closing out their games and really hurting their opposition in the last quarter. Lachie Neale has been an awesome inclusion to their midfield this year and we have him as best on ground both weeks and leading our Brownlow Predictor.
Port Adelaide have also won both of their matches this year and sit third on the ladder, just behind Brisbane on percentage. Losing Jack Watts last week to a broken fibula was a cruel blow to their team as he was relishing the change in position down back.
Port Adelaide have beaten the Lions the last 5 times they have played although this Lions outfit is of a different standard as in the past.
I expect a close game here with the Lions taking it right up to port but I rate Ports mids as better than the Lions and the talls of Westhoff and Lycett and Ryder will cause them problems. I’ll take Port at the 1-39 margin bet.
Match Prediction – Port Adelaide by 13 points
Betting Tip – Port Adelaide 1-39 Margin Bet – ($2.80 – Neds)Bet Now At NEDS
Collingwood V West Coast
We have the Grand Final rematch at the MCG for the main Saturday night contest. After a rusty first week of the season both teams played themselves back into form last week with solid wins. The Eagles beat GWS at home by 52 points and the Pies beat the Tigers by a solid 44 point margin.
These two teams met three times in 2018 with West Coast getting the win in every game, most notably the Grand Final where Dom Sheed slotted the match winning goal from the boundary to win by 5 points. The Pies won the previous two in 2016 and 2017.
Collingwood bolstered their midfield stock in the off season with Dayne Beams and it really paid off last week with the mids of the Pies dominating the Tigers. Josh Kennedy returned for the Eagles on the weekend but you could tell he was rusty and it will probably be a couple of weeks before he has found his touch and is slotting bags again.
The form of the Pies last week makes it tough to go past them, they look in a little better touch than the Eagles with the likes of Yeo, Kennedy, Hurn and McGovern still looking very rusty.
Look for the Pies to get the W in a close one.
Match Prediction – Collingwood by 9 points
Betting Tip – Collingwood 1-39 Margin Bet – ($2.06 – Neds)Bet Now At NEDS
Western Bulldogs V Gold Coast
The Gold Coast are surprising people this year, they lost by only one point against the Saints in round one then went on to beat the Dockers at Metricon in round 2. David Swallow has been great this year and the likes of Brayden Fiorini and Jack Bowes are continuing to improve as genuine AFL midfielders.
The Dogs have beat the Suns the last five times they have played although they only just got over the line by 9 points in 2018.
With the Suns having a little bit of belief in their ability and gameplan I have this game being closer than the bookies suggest. I believe the Dogs will get the victory but it won’t surprise me if Gold Coast take them right down to the wire like they did to Freo last week.
I’ll take the Gold Coast at the line of +32.5.
Match Prediction – Western Bulldogs by 17 points
Betting Tip – Gold Coast at the line +32.5 – ($1.90 – Neds)Bet Now At NEDS
Hawthorn V Nth Melbourne
The Hawks gave up a commanding lead to end up losing to the Dogs by 19 points last week. The loss came on the back of the Hawks being two players down for the last quarter in Liam Shiels and Shaun Burgoyne who both succumbed to hamstring injuries.
North lead for the majority of the match against Brisbane last week but they faded in the last quarter when it counted to end up losing by 20 points.
The Kangaroos beat Hawthorn in their only encounter in 2018 by 28 points, the previous four went the way of Hawthorn.
North haven’t managed to chalk up a win yet this year but I believe this will be the week. Shiels and Burgoyne are a massive loss to the Hawthorn team, add them to Tom Mitchell and you have some serious quality missing from the engine room.
Look for the Roos to win in a close one.
Match Prediction – North Melbourne by 12 points
Betting Tip – Nth Melbourne to win – ($2.55 – Neds)Bet Now At NEDS
Fremantle V St Kilda
The Saints are 2 and 0 for the season and their spirits are high. This week will prove a tough test as they head to WA to take on Fremantle who looked great in the first game of the year then managed to get run down by a rampaging Gold Coast at Metricon last week.
The Saints have won three of their past five matches against Fremantle, even pinching one in WA in 2017.
Nat Fyfes defensive work will be put under the pump this week with many experts criticising the lack of running he does when Freo don’t have the ball. The Saints will look to exploit that with Jack Steele more than likely running with him in a hard tagging role then peeling off when the Saints have the ball.
Other than Fyfe the Freo midfield doesn’t run very deep with Hill being the only other midfielder in form this year for the Dockers. The Saints run a bit deeper through the mid with Steven, Steele, Ross, Gresham, Billings and even Newnes all being solid contributors so far this year.
I won’t be surprised if the Saints get the win in this game but I like the 18.5 point buffer you can get by taking them at the line.
Match Prediction – St Kilda by 12 points
Betting Tip – St Kilda at the line +18.5 – ($1.90 – Neds)Bet Now At NEDS
AFL Round 3 Betting Tips Summary
|Adelaide V Geelong||Odds|
|Adelaide Crows 1-39 Margin Bet||$1.90|
|Melbourne V Essendon|
|Essendon at the line +15.5||$1.90|
|Carlton V Sydney|
|Sydney to win||$1.48|
|GWS V Richmond|
|GWS 1-39 Margin Bet||$2.18|
|Brisbane V Port Adelaide|
|Port Adelaide 1-39 Margin Bet||$2.80|
|Collingwood V West Coast|
|Collingwood 1-39 Margin Bet||$2.06|
|Western Bulldogs V Gold Coast|
|Gold Coast at the line +32.5||$1.90|
|Hawthorn V Nth Melbourne|
|Nth Melbourne to win||$2.55|
|Fremantle V St Kilda|
|St Kilda at the line +18/5||$1.90|
Lock of the week
The lock of the week this week goes to Sydney to win at $1.48. They are 0 and 2 for the season and they’ll be very keen to snap the losing streak against Carlton and get a win on the board.
Sydney to win at $1.48
The Saints have got their tails up with two wins on the trot, they are playing some good footy but their conversion is hurting them. If they can kick straight this week there is no reason they can’t down the Dockers by over 15.5.
Saints to win by over 15.5 points at $5.25
Long Shot of the week
My long shot of the week goes to an Essendon and Melbourne draw, this is highly unlikely but will be great if it lands and both teams remain winless through three games.
Essendon V Melbourne to DRAW at $61.00
Multi Bet Of The Week
- Essendon at the line +15.5
- Sydney to win
- Collingwood 1-39
- Gold Coast at the line +32.5
- St Kilda at the line +18.5
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