Well we’re on to the AFL semi finals where the Dees will take on Hawthorn in the first elimination match of the week. Melbourne were impressive against the Cats last week while Hawthorn were comprehensively beaten by the reigning premiers. The second elimination final takes place on Saturday night between the pies and GWS, the pies lost narrowly to the Eagles last week and GWS looked very sharp against the Swans in a 49 point win. I’ll try to find the best AFL betting tips for both matches.
Hawthorn V Melbourne
Friday 7:50 – MCG
Hawthorn get their second chance this week against a rampaging Melbourne, they just didn’t have the answers last week against a red hot Richmond. They made a bizarre decision to bring in Jonathon Ceglar to accompany Ben McEvoy in the ruck when the forecast was for heavy rain. Fair to say it didn’t pay off. The two ruckmen will be needed this week though to combat Max Gawn’s domination in the ruck and excellent ground coverage.
Melbourne were unrelenting against Geelong last week, their pressure game was on another level and it showed in the tackles in forward 50 stat where they had 23 of them. They ended up beating Geelong by 29 points but realistically it was a lot bigger margin than that, they missed many shots on goal which kept the margin closer than what it should’ve been.
Melbourne’s James Harmes will likely get the job on Tom Mitchell this week, he has some big scalps for the year and the beauty of him is that he can stop his opponent and peel off and be damaging himself. The depth of the entire Melbourne midfield is deeper than Hawthorn’s.
I expect the Dees to continue with their form from last week and run over the top of the Hawks.
Tip – Melbourne at the line -14.5 – $1.92 @ BetEasy
Collingwood V GWS
Saturday 7:25 – MCG
GWS were impressive last week against the Swans, the only negative coming out of the game was a knee injury to Josh Kelly which saw him leave the ground early in the first half. A tear in his meniscus was confirmed during the week but he is a slight chance to play this week against Collingwood.
Toby Greene was BOG last week after being rushed back into the side after injury. He had 27 disposals, kicked 3 goals and 4 players. Coniglio and Callan Ward were also excellent last week, the talent in this team is ridiculous. Phil Davis single handedly shut down Lance franklin last week keeping him to 8 posessions and 0 goals for the game, this week he will have a much easier task.
GWS managed to defeat the Pies in their only matchup at the MCG earlier in the year, which they won by 16 points.
The Pies were good for the most part of the game last week and held the lead for the majority until they were finally run over the top of by the Eagles. I expect this game to go very similar to last weeks, the two teams are very evenly matched in the midfield but GWS has a slightly stronger forward and back line. Goldsack was rushed back last week from an ACL and he was a shining light in defence against a rusty Josh Kennedy.
Collingwood are coming off a short turn around from W.A. and I expect it to impact their energy late in the game.
Tip – GWS to win between 1-39 – $2.70 @ BetEasy
- Melbourne -14.5
- GWS 1-39
Multibet pays $5.18 @ BetEasy
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