Round 4 of the AFL season kicks off with another Thursday night game, this time between Sydney and Melbourne at the SCG. This round looks like it will be an awesome week of footy with one of the highlights of the round being the WA Derby on Sunday. The first 3 rounds have thrown up some surprising results although we are starting to get a real feel for how each team is performing.
Lets get into the Round 4 AFL tips and try to pick some winners for round 4 of the AFL Season.
We have also created a Brownlow Predictor for the 2019 season where we try to see the game through the eyes of an umpire, see the brownlow predictor here.
We have a poll under each game to see who you would choose, take 2 seconds to answer and see the results.
Sydney V Melbourne
It has been a bad start to the year for both of these teams, Sydney got their first win against Carlton last week in a close one. Melbourne on the other hand were beaten by Essendon and remain winless through three games of the 2019 season.
Melbourne have lost every match against Sydney since they drew all the way back in n 2011.
This match takes place in Sydney which will add one more level of difficulty for the Dees.
I have to go with Sydney here, Melbourne haven’t shown enough to warrant selecting them.
Match Prediction – Sydney by 5 points
Collingwood V Bulldogs
The Pies were up and about in round 2 but round 3 against the Eagles they were brought back to Earth by the impressive Eagles. The Bulldogs lost their first game of the year against the Gold Coast last week in a close battle at Marvel Stadium.
The Bulldogs have surprisingly won 4 of the 5 past contests against Collingwood although they lost their only head to head match in 2018.
The Pies have a better team than the Dogs and I expect them to get the win at the MCG on Friday night but I don’t think the margin will blow out. The Dogs have been tough in the contest this year and should keep the margin fairly close.
Match Prediction – Collingwood by 18
Geelong V GWS
The Cats have been impressive this year and sit on top of the ladder after 3 rounds. GWS have also looked good with 2 impressive wins and a week that you can just write off over in Perth against the Eagles.
Geelong seem to have a pretty heavy dominance over GWS when the match is played down in Geelong. They have won the last three against the Giants at GMHBA by an average margin of 38 points.
GWS are looking good and should be amongst the action in September although I don’t think this week will be kind to them. Geelong at GMHBA are seriously hard to beat and I expect them to get the job done quite easily here.
Match Prediction – Geelong by 28
Essendon V Brisbane
Brisbane have been awesome this year with 3 wins in the bag and sitting 2nd on the ladder. The Bombers got their first win of the year against the Dees last week in an up and down battle.
Lachie Neale looks to be the recruit of the year and we have him sitting on 9 votes in our Brownlow Predictor. The Bombers mids of Heppell and Zaharakis got going last week and look to be playing themselves into some form.
The form between these two teams is a little weird with the last 4 being 2 a piece. Essendons 2 wins took place up in Brisbane and Brisbanes 2 wins happened at Etihad (Marvel).
The bookies couldn’t split these two, they have them both starting at $1.90. The form of the Lions can’t be overlooked, if they bring the same intensity to the G on Saturday there is no reason they can’t get over the top of the Bombers in a close one.
Match Prediction – Brisbane by 10
Port Adelaide V Richmond
It goes from bad to worse at Richmond with Riewoldt and Rance already ruled out for lengthy stints on the sidelines, they will now lose Dustin Martin to suspension and Trent Cotchin to a hamstring.
Port Adelaide have won three of the past four against the Tigers and are 2 out of 3 at Adelaide Oval where this match will take place. Add this to the form and injuries of the Tigers and this one doesn’t look good for them.
The season of hell will more than likely continue for the Tigers.
Match Prediction – Port Adelaide by 25
Nth Melbourne V Adelaide
Adelaide have been underperforming this year and sit at only 1 win out of 3 for the season. North Melbourne have been worse than that and have 0 wins from 3.
I can’t see the Roos improving their form enough to match it with the Crows. In saying that there are a few Crows that need to lift their form, Tex Walker and Josh Jenkins are a couple that are seriously underperforming.
The Crows should be able to get the win against North and should be able to cover the line of -9.5.
Match Prediction – Adelaide by 25
West Coast V Frematle
The Eagles kicked right into gear last week when they took care of the Pies at the MCG in convincing fashion. Freo won in a tight one against the Saints to go to 2 wins for the season and sit 3rd on the ladder.
Nat Fyfe’s concussion against the Saints last week was one of the worst I’ve seen, he will be in serious doubt for this week. Even if he does play he will more than likely have less impact than he usually does. The Eagles were ridiculous against Collingwood, their midfield was strengthened with the return of Gaff and they made Collingwoods awesome midfield look second rate.
I think the bookies have this one on the money with the line being 35.5 points. I believe this one will be a high scoring affair. 4 of the last 5 derby’s have had a total score of over 160 so I’ll be taking the Total Score over 157.5.
JK to kick a bag.
Match Prediction – West Coast by 35
Betting Tip – Total Score over 157.5 – $1.84 @ BetEasy – Click here to see the market
Gold Coast V Carlton
Gold Coast have been the surprise packet of 2019 beating Fremantle in round 2, then the Bulldogs in round 3. The Blues have been ok, they have lost all three matches but they have been against far better competition than the Gold Coast.
The recruits from the Gold Coast have been great this season with Sam Collins looking like an awesome pick up and has slotted into the position Steven May vacated. Up and coming talent like Jack Bowes and Brayden Fiorini also continue to improve.
I think this will be a tight match. The Blues are desperate to get a win on the board and would’ve looked at this match as a win before the season started. Gold Coast have won 2 from 3 but their margins have been, 1 point loss, 3 point win, 5 point win. They are just scraping across the line and I think this week will be a similar result.
Match Prediction – Gold Coast by 5
St Kilda V Hawthorn
The Saints just couldn’t convert last week and ended up going down to Fremantle by 5 points in a nail biter. The Hawks continue to impress and came back strongly against North Melbourne to win by 16 points after being well down at quarter time.
The Hawks ability to replace missing players is unparalleled. Jaegar O’Meara is coming into his own and dominated last week with 32 disposals and a massive 12 tackles.
The Saints have beaten the Hawks only once in their past 5 meetings. This Hawthorn team is different to the one in the past but it is still a quality outfit.
The Saints have looked good this year although the Hawks have looked a little bit better. The Hawks will probably get the win here but I like the line of +18.5 for the Saints.
Match Prediction – Hawks by 8
AFL Round 4 Betting Tips Summary
|Sydney V Melbourne||Odds|
|Sydney to win||$1.70|
|Collingwood V Western Bulldogs|
|Geelong V GWS|
|Geelong at the line -15.5||$1.90|
|Essendon V Brisbane|
|Brisbane to win||$1.90|
|Port Adelaide V Richmond|
|Port Adelaide 1-39||$2.10|
|Nth Melbourne V Adelaide|
|Adelaide at the line -9.5||$1.90|
|West Coast V Fremantle|
|Total score over 157.5||$1.84|
|Gold Coast V Carlton|
|Either team by less than 15.5||$2.55|
|St Kilda V Hawthorn|
|Saints at the line +18.5||$1.90|
Lock of the week
Geelong are in awesome form and are a different beast down at GMHBA, although GWS are a great team I see the Cats being too good in this one and covering the 15.5 point line.
Geelong at the line -15.5 at $1.90
Josh Kennedy to kick 6+ goals, the markets aren’t out for player goals as yet but check out the odds at Beteasy here after the teams are released on Thursday evening.
Long Shot of the week
I expect a close game between Carlton and Gold Coast and will take a winning margin of 5-6 points as my long shot of the week.
Gold Coast to win by 5-6 points at $29.00 – See the market at Ladbrokes here
Multi Bet Of The Week
- Sydney to win
- Geelong at the line -15.5
- WC V Fre over 157.5 points
- St Kilda at the line +18.5
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