We have only 1 day between rounds this week and we’re loving it. This week is headlined by the massive ANZAC Day clash between the Pies and Bombers on Thursday and will end with the top of the ladder Cats taking on the 2018 premiers West Coast. We can’t wait for the sound of the Bugle and the sound of Footy!
Lets get into the Round 6 AFL tips and pick some winners for round 6 of the AFL Season.
We have also created a Brownlow Predictor for the 2019 season where we try to see the game through the eyes of an umpire, see the brownlow predictor here.
Richmond V Melbourne
The Melbourne fans aren’t angry at the Demons this year, they are just disappointed. 5 rounds in and all they have is a 22 point win over Sydney who have been equally as bad this season.
The Tigers have had 2 wins on the trot to stabilise their season. They’ve beaten Port and Sydney with a lot of their big names missing.
The Dees have swung the axe this week, dropping Charlie Spargo and the Wagner brothers. Neville Jetta and Brayden Preuss are omissions through injury. The problem with these changes is they aren’t bringing in any real talent. Alex Neal-Bullen, Billy Stretch, Jeff Garlett, Tim Smith and Jay Lockhart come in as their replacements.
The Tigers are looking to be getting back into the groove and welcome Riewoldt back from his fractured wrist this week.
I’ll take the Tigers in a close one.
Match Prediction – Richmond by 5
Essendon V Collingwood
This will be an absolute cracking match at the MCG on ANZAC Day. Both the Bombers and Collingwood are starting to hit their stride in 2019.
The Bombers have won the past three in convincing fashion, dismissing Melbourne by 18 in round 3, Brisbane by 47 in round 4, then Nth Melbourne by 58 in round 5. The Pies beat the Bulldogs in round 4 then smashed the Lions last week.
Collingwood won the ANZAC day contest by 49 points last year and have the edge in their last five clashes 3/2.
It looks like the midfield of the Pies is starting to mesh which is bad news for the Bombers. With both teams in form and the massive occasion of Anzac Day I think this will be a fairly close one with the Pies getting the job done between 1-39.
Match Prediction – Collingwood by 19
Port Adelaide V Nth Melbourne
Like a few of the teams in the comp Port have been a bit of an enigma. They lost to an undermanned Richmond at home in round 4, then went to WA and beat the Eagles by 42 points. The inclusion of Ollie Wines was huge for their midfield.
North have been nothing short of laughable and if this continues through to the bye you’d think Brad Scott will finally get his walking papers.
I can’t see Port losing this one but I don’t think it will blow out too much.
Port between 1-39.
Match Prediction – Port Adelaide by 22
Gold Coast V Brisbane
The good old Q Clash. This will be a great match with both teams starting the season in great form until a hiccup for both teams in the last week or two.
They have won one match each in their last 2 match ups, both times in 2018. Gold Coast won by 5 points, then Brisbane won by 4 points.
The last two weeks Lachie Neale has been shut down and so have Brisbane, it seems as though if you can keep Lachie quiet that Brisbane will struggle to win.
I see a repeat of last year with this one and expect a close result.
Match Prediction – Gold Coast by 6
Betting Tip – Either team by less than 15.5 – $2.88 @ BetEasy – Click here to see the market
St Kilda V Adelaide
The Saints are sitting second on the ladder which no one would have predicted at the start of the year.
Adelaide finally got something going last week for Eddie Betts’ 300th and smashed the Suns by 73 points at the Adelaide Oval.
The bookies have underestimated the Saints all year until now. They have swung the other way and started the Saints as favourites which I think is a mistake. The Saints are on a roll and are playing great pressure based footy but at the end of the day the Crows team is probably slightly stronger and it won’t surprise me if they get the win in a close one.
Match Prediction – Adelaide by 16
Sydney V GWS
The Battle of the Bridge takes place at the SCG this Anzac week. Sydney have lost the plot this year and are looking like a team that is unrecognisable.
Sydney had the wood over GWS in the Battle of the Bridge until last year where GWS held Sydney to just 30 points for the match and ended up winning by 49.
This will be similar to last year with the classier GWS dominating their cross town rivals.
Match Prediction – GWS by 45
Fremantle V Western Bulldogs
Fremantle have been tough to pick this year, you don’t know which one’s going to show up.
The Dogs started the year solidly but their season came to a screeching halt last week when they got smashed by 44 points off Carlton.
The fact that this is being played over in WA doesn’t bring back any fond memories for the Dogs, they haven’t beaten Freo over there since 2009.
Look for a fairly easy win to the Dockers in this one.
Match Prediction – Fremantle by 27
Betting Tip – Fremantle at the line -15.5 – $1.91 @ BetEasy – Click here to see the market
Hawthorn V Carlton
The Hawks have lost a couple of tough ones in the last couple of weeks. First to the Saints, then the Cats last week.
Carlton are riding high after their 44 point win over the Dogs last week. The Hawks are a tougher team than the Dogs but they are missing key personnel and are definitely beatable.
If the Blues are to get the job done they’ll need Harry McKay to repeat his massive performance of last week and there’s no reason why he can’t because the Hawks are slim in defence due to injury.
The Hawks will probably get the job done but look for Carlton to be fired up and keep the margin close.
I’ll be taking the Blues at the line, I think they’ll keep this game within 20 points, if not win.
Match Prediction – Hawthorn by 15
Geelong V West Coast
This is probably the game of the round. Last years premiers take on the in form Cats down at GMHBA Stadium.
Like so many teams in the AFL this year it depends which West Coast shows up. If the best one shows up they will give Geelong a good run.
GMHBA is usually a fortress but GWS showed us a couple of weeks ago it isn’t as impenetrable as it has been in the past.
At the end of the day the Eagles haven’t beaten Geelong in Geelong since 2006 and it’s probably not going to happen this week.
Match Prediction – Geelong by 17
AFL Round 6 Betting Tips Summary
|Richmond V Melbourne||Odds|
|Essendon V Collingwood|
|Port Adelaide V Nth Melbourne|
|Port Adelaide 1-39||$2.12|
|Gold Coast V Brisbane|
|Either team by less than 15.5||$2.88|
|St Kilda V Adelaide|
|Adelaide to win||$1.95|
|Sydney V GWS|
|GWS by 40+||$3.80|
|Fremantle V Western Bulldogs|
|Fremantle at the line -15.5||$1.91|
|Hawthorn V Carlton|
|Carlton at the line +20.5||$1.91|
|Geelong V West Coast|
Lock of the week
The Dockers dominance over the Bulldogs when the game is played over in the West can’t be overlooked and they should dispose of an out of form Bulldogs quite easily.
Fremantle at the line -15.5 – $1.90
Sydney are out of form massively and their team has massive holes in it. Buddy doesn’t look 100%, his kicks don’t seem to be going as far as they have in the past and they’re definitely not going through the big sticks with only 11 for the year. GWS to run all over the top of their cross town rivals.
Long Shot of the week
Fremantle’s heavy dominance over the Dogs make me think they’re going to slaughter the dogs.
Fremantle by 60-79 – $12.00 @ Ladbrokes
Multi Bet Of The Week
- Port Adelaide 1-39
- Fremantle at the line -15.5
- Geelong 1-39
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